Red Bull enjoyed the most dominant performance in the history of Formula 1 last year and looked to have carried that momentum forward.
During pre-season testing it was abundantly clear that the RB20 was the class of the field.
That’s what played out in the early races – the Australian GP a blip on the radar when a brake failure for Max Verstappen scrubbed him early on.
At that stage, Ferrari was the squad’s nearest challenger, but from the Chinese Grand Prix – Round 4 of the campaign – there were hints that McLaren would also become a factor.
That proved to be the case in Miami when Oscar Piastri chased Verstappen in the early stages of the race, before a Safety Car swung the race in favour of Lando Norris.
Since that point, the challenge has not abated.
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Red Bull Racing has had the better run of results but, with Sergio Perez underperforming, it has lost ground to McLaren in the constructors’ championship.
And in the eyes of the team, that’s the competition that matters.
The drivers’ title brings with it bragging rights, but the constructors’ crown is worth tens of millions of dollars.
Perez failing to fire is therefore a critical issue for the Milton Keynes squad and is why his future was such a hot topic heading into the summer break.
Where last year Red Bull Racing could lean on Verstappen’s crushing performances, it no longer has that margin in hand and needs both its drivers contributing to its tally.
That hasn’t been the case, and that’s a problem.
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But it’s only one of the problems the team faces as, the reason Perez is a concern, is because its advantage at the front has been eroded.
All four of the leading teams have scored multiple wins this year, and we’re only 14 races in. Red Bull Racing won 21 of 22 races last year.
The closeness of the competition means mistakes are heavily penalised, as is a failure to deliver.
Red Bull has had its wings clipped by the regulations; there are cost cap measure that prevent it leveraging any financial advantage it once had, and it also has aerodynamic testing restrictions in place commensurate with its place atop the championship standings.
In essence, it has reduced development capacity versus its rivals – a deliberate point designed to create exactly the scenario we are seeing.
But there’s more to Red Bull’s season than Perez failing to deliver and greater competition at the front.
Off-track the all-conquering operation has been working through a transitional phase.
Adrian Newey is leaving the team, as is sporting director Jonathan Wheatley.
There’s also been suggestions of a power struggle between Christian Horner – who has battled his own demons – and Helmut Marko.
Add in to that mix the continued needling from rivals looking to destabilise the organisation with suggestions they’ll sign Verstappen for next year…
All told, it’s not been an easy season and it looks like it’s only going to get tougher – if only on track.
McLaren is a significant threat with a car that is arguably more competitive than the RB20.
Mercedes too has developed well since Monaco and has won three of the last four races.
Indeed, Red Bull Racing is currently on its longest dry spell in terms of race wins since before Perez raced for the squad. And with 10 races remaining, there’s a lot of winning still to be done.
Just 42 points separate Red Bull Racing and McLaren at the top of the championship standings, with Ferrari not too far back in third.
Based on the first half of the season, it will likely come down to a scrap between the top two for the constructors’ crown, with the wildcards of Ferrari snagging the odd result and Mercedes being well in the mix too – but too far back to pose a threat to Red Bull Racing in the constructors’ championship.
The 2024 season is perched on a knife edge.
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